Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 3 points as of today. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 45. This 3-part map lets you view the current composition of the U. The polling tracker lets you do a lot with our huge database of polls, but for some polling nerds, it isn’t enough. In some ways, splits on all these indicators probably shouldn’t be a surprise. 7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8. S. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Democrats (D) +6. Download the data. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, 3 Democrats currently lead by 0. 7. Democrats now enjoy a small but notable lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot with less than three months before crucial midterm elections, according to. Download. 1380 RV. As you can see, the president’s party lost. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. 9 . 2000. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 5 GOP (R) +2. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Trump maintains a 10-point lead among White voters, while trailing Biden. Specifically, the generic-ballot polling average the previous September overestimates the president’s party’s vote margin by an average of 3. KEY. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to. On Election Day 2022, Republicans had a 1. 6 national generic ballot after accounting for uncontested seats, most of which were won by Republican candidates this year. 21, 2023 leader Nov. 12-16. 9 percentage points (44. David Schweikert won his race by less than 1. Download. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Josh Christenson. On average, Democrats trailed by. Races called correctly. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. All 2018 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. All 2014 Generic Congressional Vote Polling Data. 2 point swing. 6 points. Sep. YouGov. Rasmussen. Download. Republicans (R) July October 2020 April July October 38 40 42. A bleak Senate outlook for Democrats just got bleaker. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Republicans (R) July October 2018 April July October 36 38 40. The initial 2024 ballot shows Biden holding a two-point lead over Trump in a hypothetical rematch, with 43% for Biden, 41% for Trump, 11% undecided, and 5% of voters saying they will probably not vote in the 2024 election. 57. 4% Democrat 45. ”. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. In Ohio, both liberal ballot measures succeeded with near supermajorities. How this works. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The Immigration Hub is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. Generic ballot. 0 points. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Emerson. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 8. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association,. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. 42. ”. Here in 2018. +1. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. It may also be the case, though, that Omar just didn’t take her primary challenge too seriously. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 45. 41%. Senate, U. Generic ballot polling average. House, where 218 seats are needed for a majority (when there are no vacancies). Andy Beshear won reelection in Kentucky. Download the data. 5Download the data. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Jun. 68%. 2 percent in an average of all. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Six pollsters 1 have released generic ballot polls both before and after the Dobbs decision. Once upon a time, people really did vote for person over party. President: general election, Virginia, 2024. RCP Poll Average. Generic ballot, 2022. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. 0 percent to 42. 6% Masters 47. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 78%. For instance, Omar and Samuels didn’t debate, and despite amassing a sizable war chest of her. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Wednesday’s poll also showed Democrats leading generic down-ballot races 47% to 42% with Trump at the top of the. No Labels wants to be on the ballot in all 50 states. 5 GOP (R) +2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 1/20 - 1/21. Today, 538 is also happy to release our live-updating average of polls of the national generic congressional ballot, which ask Americans which party they intend to support for Congress in 2024. Bluegrass Freedom Action (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Between the House (435 races), Senate (35) and gubernatorial races (36), we issued forecasts in a total of 506 elections. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 49. 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination: Trafalgar Group (R) Trump 50, DeSantis 13, Haley 15, Ramaswamy 4, Christie 5, Scott 4, Burgum 3, Hutchinson 0: Trump +35: 2024 Republican Presidential. How do you like your House forecast? Lite. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Trump. Democracy Corps is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. 6 hours ago · A court ruled last week that previous spending violated constitutional limits on deficits, forcing Scholz’s government to put off a final vote on next year’s spending plan. In October 2014, the generic ballot stood here: Fox: D 45%, R 43% (D+2) CNN: D 49%, R 43% (D+6) (NPR’s last poll of registered voters. But most of them are. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. 2020. avg. On Wednesday morning, another generic. Emerson. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Democrats enjoyed 42 percent support in the congressional generic ballot on January 23, compared to 43. Club for Growth (PAC) is a partisan sponsor for the Republican Party. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 508: LV: Nov. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. This page displays the current 270toWin Polling Average for each state. Statistical model by G. Climate Power is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Use the buttons below the map to share your forecast or embed. Download. President: Republican primary, Iowa, 2024. The 538 running average of the generic ballot puts Democrats at 46% to Republicans 45%. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. Latest 2024 Polls; Republican Nomination; GOP Betting Odds; Democratic Nomination; Dem. Biden vs. The data point for 2014 reflects this year’s generic congressional ballot, a poll-based projection of the national House vote. The average. A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 7. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. The generic congressional vote question does not. A new CNN survey released this week showed Democrats leading Republicans by an astounding 56 percent to 38 percent on the generic congressional ballot. The Senate Is Losing One Of Its Few Remaining Moderate Republicans Sep 13, 2023. 2 percent, respectively). 7-10. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download. 8, 2022 leader Kelly Kelly +1. 48%. Find the latest poll numbers from CNN here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Election 2024 Polls; Generic Congressional Ballot; Senate Polls; State of the Union Polls; RCP Election 2024. RealClearPolitics - Election 2024 - General Election: Trump vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. “Two weeks out from the midterms, evidence points to a re-emerging red wave that could sweep in GOP control of both chambers,” Axios (. Note that these polls differ by 1 point for Ds. 1 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52. July 14-25. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. S. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. While it’s definitely too early to hang your hat on any 2024 general-election polls, a Selzer & Co. 59. Governor, Kentucky, 2023. 2022 Generic Congressional Vote. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. The net result is the average 2. Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution. In testing this on 2018 and 2020 races. 0 percent). Download the data. Democrats Republicans; Likely: Leans: Toss up: Likely: Leans: Toss up: Date State Prev ious Status New Status Dems Toss Ups GOP Pick-Up Range Avg Gain Average Gain; 11/6: NY19 NY19: Leans GOPMarch 28-April 5. Aug. 3 . and the generic ballot test, in particular. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. In 2010, the Republican turnout advantage amounted to the equivalent of 6 percentage points, meaning a tie on the generic ballot among registered voters translated into a six-point Republican lead. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. 182. B/C. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Republicans ended up winning the national House. Andy Beshear is a Democratic Party candidate for office. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 500 LV. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. No. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 11/18 - 11/19. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. S. 0. Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022. Jan 23 New Hampshire presidential primary election Latest news and analysis Latest news Harris tells CNN that she and Biden will ‘have to earn our reelect’. 3%. S. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Ballotpedia includes comprehensive election information for the largest 100 cities by population, as well as all state legislative, statewide, and congressional races across the nation. , polls that ask people whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or for a Republican for Congress. For Ballotpedia's presidential approval, congressional approval, direction of the country, and generic congressional ballot polling results, we take an average of the most recent polls (from the last 30 days, with some exceptions for major news events) on one or more of these topics conducted by the. Chris Sununu (R) , Larry Hogan (R) , Mike Pompeo (R) By Martín González Gómez and Maggie Astor. Filed under 2020 Election. To improve accuracy, the polling average gives more weight to polls: 1. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Download the data. Download. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. 6 . Jun. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. 22 to Nov. Staff writer. -- A judge has struck down an effort to enshrine reproductive rights, including abortion, in Nevada’s constitution, as abortion rights. This isn’t a popularity contest™. 2018 Generic Congressional Vote. And in 2014, the difference between the two numbers was impossible to ignore. The results indicate. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. 49. 2% Republican 44. News. 45. U. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. 7 points behind Mr. Undecided voters overwhelmingly believe the country is off on the wrong track: 83 percent of those undecided on the generic ballot say so. If you followed polls of the generic congressional ballot, you knew as early as summer 2017 that signs pointed to a wave election for Democrats in 2018. Ron DeSantis’s 538 polling average in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary is. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. ABC’s Jonathan Karl and 538 blogger Nate Silver -- noted that the recent polls about Obama’s approval rating and the generic ballot. On Election Day the red wave crashed ashore, with the GOP recording. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 3. You can contact your state or local election administrator for an official sample ballot. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. Download. Kennedy vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Download the data. in fear that they would imperil a President Biden victory in 2024. /Grinnell College poll conducted Oct. Republicans took the lead in the generic congressional ballot on July 6, and by Labor Day weekend they had a clear 5-point lead. Download the data. Download the data. The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. 11, 2023. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The Second GOP Debate Could Be Smaller, With Or Without Trump Sep 14, 2023; 2024 Election. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Download the data. fit different models to predict the election outcome from generic ballot polls taken 300 days before the election, 240 days before the election, 180 days before the. 2 All six of those polling firms have shown a shift toward Democrats. 0 10 20 30 40 50% Election Day Nov. Download the data. By Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux and Meredith Conroy. Filed under 2020 Election. Where that is not applicable, the most recent 2024 presidential election poll is used. How this works: FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy of each polling organization’s polls along with its methodology. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Biden vs. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Sort by date. 48. As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. On Tuesday morning, a poll came out from ABC News and The Washington Post showing Democrats ahead by 14 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot. A higher share of women than men have voted for Democrats in every midterm election since 1980, and in the past two midterm cycles the gap has been even bigger. EDT. degree. 2024 Presidential Ballot Access . An initiated measure is a proposed law that people collect signatures for to put on the ballot. 02. 45. 4 points. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. voters in 2024, much of their. 9 points on the actual house popular vote in Nov, a 4. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. A handful of recent polls asking likely voters in Virginia if they plan to vote for a Democrat or Republican in the upcoming General Assembly election (much like generic ballot surveys for U. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Download the data. Download. Specifically, we looked at what would happen if you made a forecast based solely on the partisan lean of a state or district, plus generic-ballot results. 43. 27%. KEY. 1380 RV. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. 2024 Elections; Top Stories. The latest with redistricting. Earliest day for independent candidates to circulate and file nominating petitions. 8 percentage points, is too aggressive and will usually. 5 percent to 40. Download the data. Download the data. But still, if we look at an average of generic ballot polls from 1996 to 2020 — covering seven presidential elections and six midterms — the polls were only off by 2. I’ll take the polls, plus all the “fundamentals”: fundraising, past voting in the. Select a state name to see its presidential voting history. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. 8 Nov. 48. Download. 10, 2023 The Polls Were Historically Accurate In 2022 By Nathaniel Rakich Filed under. 3. 8, 2022. Education Reform Now Advocacy is a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party. For example, if 44 percent of voters favored Democrats and 35 percent. Download the data. 47%. The latest survey marks a decline over the past month from Democrats’ high point (49%), and a boost for the GOP from its 44% low. Download the data. Democrats will likely lose West Virginia's Senate seat in 2024. 3:16. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Candidate is an incumbent. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Biden EPIC-MRA. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. Polls from firms that are banned by FiveThirtyEight are not shown. Keep it simple, please — give me the best forecast you can based on what local and national polls say. The last presidential election featured one of the more accurate sets of early polls for this point in the cycle: Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 46. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is. The generic ballot in those combined districts, pitting an unnamed Democratic candidate against an unnamed Republican candidate, was tied at 39 percent among registered voters. Download. Download. 4 percent to 41. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political. MAJORITY 255 REP SEATS 240 225 225 240 255 DEM SEATS 84 in 100 84 in 100 Republicans win Republicans win 16 in. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us an email. Interestingly, as the number of surveys of races at the state or district level has fallen, the number of national polls that ask about the generic ballot — which asks respondents which party. Download. Republicans (R) +2. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.